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US Elections & Party Politics
Challenges for Kerry from the Southern Electorate by Sophia Barkat Republicans come to power in the South Even though the South has always voted for a Republican President, except for Jimmy Carter, it has never had a Republican Majority in Congress until the 1990s. In 1940s Republicans carried 2 out of 150 House Seats in the South. In 1990s there was a substantial jump to 57% or 90 plus seats. The jump was not sudden but gradual, beginning in the ‘60s when it jumped from 10 to 30 seats in a decade, followed by a slump in the '70s, and then a pick up in the '80s. (Gary C. Jackobson, "Reversal of Fortune: The Transformation of U.S. House Elections in the 1990s") Northern Democrats progressively more Liberal Segregation had something to do with winning white votes in the '60s but there was also the Voting Rights Act of 1965 which gave black people the right to vote. This rise in a minority electorate divided the Democratic Party for a while, and certainly the white voting population of the South. Democrats had to decide if they were pro-segregation or not. Over the years, as the Northern Democrats became more and more liberal on issues of gay rights, abortion and such, the Southern White Democrats decided to try to win the Black vote. (Charles S. Bullock, "Partisan Changes in the Southern Congressional Delegation and the Consequences") Black Democrats win Southern Seats In the South, districts which boasted 30-40% Black voters were very hard to win, not just for Republicans but for White candidates, but gave a slight majority to White Democrats. In 1990, the emergence of racially segregated "majority- minority" districts resulted in the overall decline of the White Southern Democrat and opened up the race between Republicans and Black Southern Democrats, catapulting an unprecedented number of Black Democrats to the House in 1996. It also facilitated the first Republican Majority in the Senate in 1992 and in the House in 1996. (David Epstein and Sharyn O’Halloran, "Majority-Minority Districts and the New Politics of Congressional Elections"). Also, by promoting Black Candidates and not competing with them in these new minority districts, Black Candidates had the advantage of Party support, financial and other, that might be accompanied with a good campaign. And since the populations of such districts are predominantly black, the Democratic victory is guaranteed, and hence, finance expenditures in such districts is also low, freeing up resources to incumbents and challengers in the majority districts. The Presidency and the Southern Electorate The South has always voted for a Republican President with the exception of Jimmy Carter, though it had enjoyed a Democratic Majority in Congress for fifty odd years. They voted for Democrats in Congress because they wanted more federally funded social programs, the South being more dependent on public programs, and the districts were such that a sizable Black vote was present post-1965. They voted for Republican Presidents because they were for balanced budgets, primarily, and Whites were the majority voting population. The Cold War, NAFTA & The New National Slogan The ‘80s changed American Voters, not just for Southern Voters but on a National Level. Reagan’s Cold War introduced the States to a potential source of income via national defense expenditure. Such were the increases in Defense Funding that States began to change the tune of their whistle to "get with the National Agenda". Senator Shelby (R-Alabama) who went from being a Democrat elected with the help of AFL-CIO to being a Republican being elected by the CCL, said this, "The only way you will survive is to become part of the National Purpose." (See Congressional Quarterly’s "Politics in America 2000", 106th Congress.) Most other Southern States were dancing to the same tune, as Republican Senators unanimously endorsed the National Missile Defense System, opposed Chemical Weapons Treaties, and brought in billions of dollars of defense spending to their States. In the 1994 elections, NAFTA became another National slogan, (David W. Brady, Robert D'Onofrio and Morris P Fiorina in "The Nationalization of Electoral Forces Revisited") supposedly punishing Democrats in the mid-term elections for Clinton's wrongdoings, though in 1996 Clinton had no problem getting re-elected as President. Liberalism vs. Conservatism The South has always been more openly religious than the North or North East. To mobilize it’s White voters, the Southern Republicans have tried to separate themselves from their Democratic opponents also by categorizing all Democrats as immoral "Liberals". This image has also put pressure on Southern Democrats who are far more conservative than thought. One of the weapons of the Republicans has been the Prayer at Schools Movements, which is a non-issue in that the Federal Government cannot have anything to do with what Public Schools do, as schooling is considered to fall under State Law. It has also been discussed all over the nation in media thereby bringing out the strong Liberal opposition and thereby alarming the Southern voters further that Democrats in essence are opposed to Christianity. Challenges for the Democratic Party There are major challenges for White Democrats running in the South, especially if they wish to win the White majority in the South. Unless they find a way to win over White voters in Majority districts in the South by way of a National Issue, they should not identify themselves with liberalism. It is perhaps why Democratic Presidential Candidates have never really been on the Liberal bandwagon as far as Gay Rights and Abortion are concerned. While candidates take a more open stance in Abortion Rights, it is not possible to win the South on Gay Rights at current electoral representation. To win the Congressional Majority in spite of the South is not impossible. Challenges for Kerry in 2004 In 2004 elections, it’s my predictions that Kerry will carry the Democratic Vote in the North East, where Democrats have a slight majority, being a Democratic candidate from Massachussette. He will however lose the South unless Republicans fail to mobilize the White voters in majority districts, which the Democrats have failed to do in the last fourty years. Republican Presidential Candidates have always won the South, even when Dole ran against Clinton. The Southern Black and Minority vote is Kerry’s to take, uncontested, as Blacks tend to vote Democrat. His real challenge is in proving that he is not so much of a liberal to the White, Christian voters in the South without antagonising the Northern Democrats, which is probably what he has in plan and what makes him such a lack lustre candidate compared to staunch liberals. About the Author(s): See under Our Contributors to find out about the Author(s) of this article. |
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