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South Asia
Focus On Welfare Instead Of War: Sans Sanity, Survival In Jeopardy by Javed Zaheer DARK WAR clouds are hovering over the South Asia region. The situation is extremely scary, explosive, serious and dangerous. It looks that the dream of peace would only remain a dream and shattered. India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, despite attempts for peace, are all inching fast towards a devastating nuclear war, with mass destruction hundred per cent guaranteed. While the world is advancing forward rapidly, the South Asian nations are rolling backwards with twice the speed. While bitter enemies have become trusted friends and partners, they are committed and dreaded bloodthirsty enemies. While battered nations have become economic powers, they are still struggling for survival and stability. While the Cold War is now ancient history and people taking a sigh of relief, they are deeply involved in the Old War, putting the lives and fate of people in jeopardy. Is this the progress they claim and boast of? Is this what the people voted for and expected from them? Poverty never got priority and is still haunting the people. The resources, energies and efforts badly needed for basic essential needs, establishment and maintenance of vital institutions, welfare of the people and the country are being mercilessly wasted on defence. Such move is definitely not in the right direction. We must take lessons from history. One of the leaders who instantly came to my mind was Salahudin Ayyubi. When the Fatimid Caliph died, Salahudin found himself to be the master of immense wealth, but he distributed everything among his people. Even the royal palace went to his commanders. The famous Library of Alexandria even at that time had as many as two million books and a great number of manuscripts on philosophy, sciences and astronomy. Jerusalem was taken in September 1187. Salahudin, personally saw to it that the Christians go back to their homeland. It was a British chronicler who wrote: "It was left to the Muslims to teach the Christians the blessings of mercy. If the taking of Jerusalem was the only fact known about Salahudin, it would be enough to prove that he was most chivalrous and large-hearted conqueror of his time, or perhaps, of any phase of history." Salahudin's gentleness, nobility of character, truthfulness and generosity were evident from every aspect of his life. His dislike and rejection of ostentation was evident with the fact that when Richard the Lion Heart surrendered Jerusalem, he was nowhere to be found and was looking for a lost little girl whose mother pleaded Salahudin to find her. Salahudin was convinced that it was more important to find the little girl and safely hand her over to her distressed mother than accepting the formal submission of the army of Richard and to enter Jerusalem. When Salahudin passed away there was not enough money to pay for his burial and his friends had to contribute to lay the conqueror to rest. Today, while millions are without shelter and starving, majority of the leaders are living in palaces like kings and deciding their fate. People are fed up of the ugly turn, twists and treachery of the dirty politics. They feel frustrated and betrayed and sense that they are being led towards the point of no return---death and destruction. They desire peace, bread and butter and reject lip service, neglect, hate, tension and war. They are being compelled to accept the wrong policies and political or otherwise decisions of the governments. The region badly needs a leader who is sincerely interested in welfare of the people. He must not be looking for milking cows for his own greed. We have talents for leadership but they are not allowed to come forward. They are either eliminated or obstructed. Today, unfortunately, our heads hang in shame. We have become a laughing stock. Corruption is deep-rooted and has become an important part of our system and lifestyle. People are also equally responsible for this state of affairs. They proudly promote corruption instead of criticizing and eliminating it. They elect wrong people---Mafia dons, corrupt and characterless elements --- again and again. One such central leader, Mr. LPY, who enjoys great popularity and is dreaded, was recently seen saying very proudly in an Indian TV program: "I consider jail as a very sacred place and love and enjoy living there. Those who don't go to prison are very unfortunate. Everyone must taste the life of jail." And yet people expect miracles, good results, progress and prosperity. They are drinking poison for cure and long life. If this is the trend today, what will be their future tomorrow? The writing is on the wall. Already, academic and other institutions are becoming criminal dens with all sorts of social evils seen and practiced. This is stark reality. Fifty six years is not a small period. If the governments fail to come up to expectations and understand the people, their needs and goals, then the disappointed, neglected and unfortunate people would have no option and choice but to turn toward others for help and leadership. Already, most of them welcome the presence of the United States in the region, like it or not. They are greatly impressed by the power and progress of this superpower and say: "America does everything in a big way. She produces everything mighty---good or bad." China and Russia, despite being immediate neighbours, could not impress the people this much. They did not and, perhaps, cannot provide the dollar, green card and the blue passport people dream of. People are in fact angry that the US came so late. They also curse their luck that after September 11, 2001, doors have been closed for them, due to the new visa policies. Nobody wants to spend so much money for a very short period visa. Now they cannot stay illegally and fear strict punishment or being declared a threat to that country.. Previously, even visa for one hour or one day was more than enough and people were ready to pay thousands or even millions. Once in America, they knew that they could live as long as they wanted, even illegally, and earn as much as possible, through mostly odd and cash jobs. Cab was the most flourishing business. Now they, and those who are unable to go to US, hate the word terrorists and criminals more than ever, irrespective of who did what and who is responsible. The South Asian community abroad is very much concerned and disturbed. People are having sleepless nights and extremely worried. When interviewed, they said: "What the heck is happening there? When will they learn to live in peace? Have they gone berserk and don't realize the consequences? " "They must learn lessons from us. For years and years, we are living peacefully as good neighbours, brothers and friends. We don't fight. In fact we don't have the time for that. Our lifestyle is entirely different. Our thinking is very positive and constructive. We believe in helping the community by all means and possible ways. Some incidents do take place but they are not given importance and allowed to flare up. So, something is really wrong and messy there. The world's timely intervention more than attention or lip service is badly and urgently needed to help the people struggling for survival there," they commented and suggested. They pointed out: "The South Asians badly miss their countries and near and dear ones. While abroad--whether citizen, immigrant, refugee or employee-they know the worth and value of their motherland most. Their love is immense. But, seeing the worsening situation, deteriorating conditions and circumstances, they find it difficult to decide on returning back. They don't want to ruin their lives and future of their children. They don't want their sacrifices to go waste. They are contributing greatly, particularly through flow of foreign exchange. They are working hard so that their people back home too could live a better life and afford at least the basic necessities." Coming to the main issue. The scenario shows that the ball is in India's court now. Nefarious designs and conspiracies of the Indian government stand exposed. Their war rhetoric and hysteria is one sided. Even their media is questioning their moves and suspecting their intentions. They are being sincerely advised to desist from making any wrong move and taking any hasty decision and action. Whatever they may say or claim, it looks clear now that they do not enjoy the support and backing of both the people and the international community. And mind it, wars cannot be fought and won without the support and backing of the people and the international community. India is boastfully depending on its might. The applied formula is everything is fair in love and war. It might be bluff today but tomorrow it could be real. It's better not to play with fire. Due to wrong policies, India's internal position is also not good. The Gujarat violence has already claimed a heavy toll and the situation is still tense and worsening. Thousands have been massacred and hundreds burnt alive. Over 95% businesses of Muslims have been completely destroyed in a planned manner, supported and sponsored by the state. Those who used to give huge donations and charities and were well established are now living on charities and in refugee camps. People have left their homes and belongings for good. They have fled to safer places, some as far as Bangladesh. Gripped with fear and terror, they still feel unsafe even at safer places. India is in, like always, a bullying mood, trying and very anxious to take full advantage of the opportunity, situation and Pakistan's position. India seized much of Kashmir in 1947. In 1949, the United Nations Security Council decided that Kashmiris had the right to decide for themselves what their future would be. At that time, a UN-administered plebiscite was ordered but, all these years later, it has yet to be held. Kashmiris have resisted Indian rule all along and there have been many upheavals and crises over the years. The current crisis dates from 1988 when the Indian central government imposed direct rule over Occupied Kashmir. Since then, Kashmiri's resistance has steadily escalated. It may be pointed out that tension between India and Pakistan is not a result of terrorism. The main conflict between these two nations is the status of Kashmir, an issue, which still remains neglected and unresolved. Vajpayee and other BJP leaders seem to believe that they could do what Indira Gandhi did in 1971. But, India's position at present is very weak, as it does not have a clear-cut case against Pakistan. Of all major terrorist attacks that have taken place after September 11 none of them could be directly linked to Pakistan. It has been argued that if the US could attack Afghanistan though it had no clinching evidence to link the Taliban and the Al Qaeda to the September11 terrorist attacks, why cannot India attack Pakistan. But many realists had reminded that India was not the US, and that Pakistan was not Afghanistan. It is this basic fact that Indian leaders refused to take into account. And Vajpayee seems to have at last recognized this basic fact. Somewhere, the Indian policymakers did not play the cards well enough. The Indian establishment assumed that after September 11 the Indian case against Pakistan was strengthened, and that any action that India would take against Pakistan would get the backing of the international community. The indication, however, is clear that the strategy has not worked fully well, and that India has to fight its lonely battle. The ramifications are clear. Once hostilities break out between the two countries, the US and the rest of the world will treat India and Pakistan as belligerents, and would not recognize the fact that India was forced into the war. In the case of a full scale conflict, as the crisis over Kashmir deepens, British military experts say that while India's armed forces would enjoy a numerical superiority if a war broke out, Pakistan's army is of higher quality. In any long-lasting conflict, India would have the advantage of a stronger economy and a population of over one billion compared to Pakistan's 142 million. It would thus be able to mobilize more soldiers. But if a conflict were of short duration, these assets would not necessarily enter into the equation, according to William Hopkinson, of the London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA). "The quality of some of the Pakistani troops is probably better on average than that of the Indians," he said. "If the worst happens and a war starts, the pressures from all sides to stop it soon would be obviously enormous, so India's theoretical long-term advantage might not come into play." According to British government sources quoted by the paper, the Pakistanis are considered better troops, and could beat off an initial Indian offensive. But the Indians could then use their superiority in conventional forces to overwhelm the Pakistanis. In one doomsday scenario which, according to The Times, has been considered by British ministers, Islamabad could then use its weapon of last resort: a nuclear device. India would survive the strike and hit back with its own atomic weapons, according to the scenario. The use of nuclear weapons in a war for the first time, since the Americans dropped such bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, is a threat that experts are not dismissing. "Yes, it is possible," said Hopkinson. "There could certainly be a risk if one side is going down in conventional struggle to use a nuclear weapon." "Whether their doctrine would be to use it tactically or to make a strike at the enemy's capital, I don't know. I would have thought that the likelihood would be a tactical use but again, it depends where the forces are... you don't want to use something (like that) on your own territory unless you can't avoid it," he stated. Hopkinson said: "If Pakistan is faced with defeat but the defeat were happening on its own territory or its part of Kashmir, it might well strike for something a bit further back ... it could be forces massed behind the first echelon." According to military analysts: "This is just a show of things to come. This is just an intimidation attempt. India's personnel are not even trained on the new systems it is planning to acquire. This is just the final show of force before the Indian military goes into hybernation. Both Pakistan and India will not be ready for a full-scale conflict for another decade. They are both currently upgrading their military. They are in the final transition phase." A realistic picture of the situation and preparedness was also presented by the analysts: "Most of all its troops are tired from fatigue caused by forward deployment and idleness for months." Political analysts have a different view. According to them: "The Indian strategy now appears to be to mount pressure on the international community to influence Pakistan to end the cross-border terrorism. That has been the primary demand of India. If that can be secured, then war becomes redundant. Several things are happening simultaneously in the Valley. It would be difficult to react, incident-by-incident. What is needed is a holistic approach to the entire issue. " They opine: "Any nuclear conflagration cannot be a localized affair and it would affect the region even beyond South Asia. So, the stakes of the international community, and particularly of the United States, are obviously very high." According to them: "India is still struggling for a strategy to deal with Pakistan. It has become clear that war, which appeared to be on the minds of all the leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is now receding into the background as the emphasis now is on exploring all diplomatic options before resorting to war. So, the new hot phrase is, "War is the last option. It is not the first option." They commented: "The BJP leaders had reduced Indian foreign policy into a single point agenda about Pakistan abetted Islamic terrorism. Americans have turned Pakistan into a close military ally in the war in Afghanistan. Pakistanis do feel assured that the US would not turn against their country. Both at the diplomatic and military levels, India is faced with the unenviable spectacle of a US-Pakistan alliance." They are of the view: "Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, Home Minister L K Advani and Minister for External Affairs Jaswant Singh seem to lack the doggedness of Indira Gandhi to defy Western powers. Indira Gandhi had, of course, the advantage of living in the Cold War period, and allied with the Soviet Union. The BJP leaders seem to lack the boldness and imagination to forge fresh alliances." The analysts said: "It means that the government is still in the process of evolving a response but it has already allowed war rhetoric to take over the country. Watching expert debates, one gets a feeling that India has no other job but to indulge into a war with its neighbour." This is the scenario despite the fact that no mature and sensible nation in this uni-polar world can publicly announce weighing a war option." "Times have changed since 1971.There is no Soviet Union around any more. We now have only the United States as the global umpire setting its own terms of global peace and war. Like it or not, the global reality is that India cannot go to a war unless Washington gives it nod. Also, Washington is in love with President Musharraf, who is America's ally in its war against terrorism. Besides, American troops are inside Pakistan, making it even more difficult for Indians to defy them," the analysts said. They stated: "Any war between India and Pakistan can turn into a nuclear war and the world cannot watch helplessly. So Washington, London, Paris, Beijing, Moscow and any and every UN member will put pressure on the warring parties not to use the war option because a nuclear war between India and Pakistan may turn into a war against humanity that no country will tolerate." The analysts questioned: "Can India afford not to listen to the global opinion against war? Does India know what will be the cost of a war against global opinion? Has anyone in the Indian government circles calculated all these risks? A seasoned politician like Atal Behari Vajpayee should understand the gravity of the issue, in order to avoid disaster. He also cannot ignore the economic fallout of a war. India's economy is in no happy situation. They opined: "India cannot copy the American and Israeli model to counter terrorism through aggression. It is certainly not so well placed as Washington was against Taliban and Jerusalem against the Palestine Authority. India should not rush into an ultimate option that could end up harming not only Pakistan but could damage India too." Analysts believe that India should think twice before rushing to a war against Pakistan without a single global power backing. US will tilt towards Islamabad rather than New Delhi, if it comes to that. For ensuring complete peace, harmony, progress and stability in the South Asian region, the objective must be friendship and construction and not enmity and destruction. The problems are common so the approach too must be common and positive, based on sincerity and mutual understanding. Sanity should prevail and enmity buried deep. Can't it be possible? Only a will is needed. Both sides must forget the past grievances, compromise on genuine issues and solve them with full sincerity, open mind and in the best interest of the people of the region. Already, there is a lot of tension worldwide. People are living in great fear and uncertainty. Now, there are two meanings of RIP. For the dead it's Rest In Peace and for the living Rip Into Pieces. Unfortunately, the latter is in practice now. We have SPCA for animals, which are more loved, respected and protected than human beings. Perhaps, now we urgently need to form SPCH, in view of the rapid increase in crimes against humanity---massacre, gang-rape, burning alive after torture even of fetus, infants, minors and elderly, exploitation, discrimination, racism, destruction, etc. etc. This Society for Prevention (not Promotion) of Cruelties against Humanity could prove effective if understood and implemented in true spirit. Many of those existing are mere showpieces, rubber stamps and ineffective. Unfortunately, they are partners in promotion of cruelties by backing---both directly and indirectly---the wrong policies, campaigns and conspiracies. Necessity is the mother of invention. So, we must think wisely and positively in this connection. There is still time. |
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